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Is El Niño making storms and flash floods in the Southwest worse?

ABC News Leer el original

9.5 / 10 Bien respaldada

La puntuación indica en qué medida fuentes independientes respaldan los hechos verificados en el momento de la verificación. No es un veredicto de verdad absoluta ni una valoración del medio.

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9 hechos encontrados en el artículo, 8 verificados

Artículo publicado

Verificado con claude-haiku-5-5 · Método 2026-10-10.

Hechos verificados

  1. Confirmada Flash floods prompted evacuations across northern New Mexico and central Arizona.

    IA Multiple results (AP-based reports) state that flash flooding led to mandatory evacuations in northern New Mexico (e.g., Rio Arriba County, San Juan County) and central Arizona (Pinetop-Lakeside area, communities in central Arizona). The results largely repeat the same AP report, which should be noted, but they consistently support the core claim.

  2. Confirmada A Colorado ski town braced for its main river to rise to catastrophic levels.

    IA Multiple results report that Pagosa Springs, a Colorado ski town, was bracing for the San Juan River to rise to catastrophic levels, with officials warning of "catastrophic flooding" and a forecast crest above 20 feet. Most of these reports repeat a single AP story, so they are not independent sources.

  3. Confirmada Over 20 trillion gallons of water fell on the Four Corners states and Nevada in the past two weeks, according to calculations by former NOAA chief scientist Ryan Maue.

    IA Several results state that over 20 trillion gallons of water fell on the Four Corners states and Nevada in the past two weeks, according to calculations by former NOAA chief scientist Ryan Maue, matching the claim's figure, period, places and attribution. These results appear to repeat the same wire-service article rather than an independent primary source, and the results do not address the claim's broader context.

  4. Confirmada Meteorologist Jeff Masters of Yale Climate Connections said: "We've had super El Niños in the past, but this is a super duper El Niño."

    IA Multiple results (WOKV, Boston 25, WSB-TV, The Independent, PBS NewsHour) explicitly quote meteorologist Jeff Masters of Yale Climate Connections saying the exact words in the claim. The quote is repeated across syndicated versions of what appears to be a single original news story, so the support largely traces to one source, though it is attributed directly to Masters.

  5. Confirmada Climate scientist Daniel Swain of the University of California Agriculture and Natural Resources said the likelihood of big precipitation in the Southwest interior goes up this time of year, but it is being seen to a degree not seen before.

    IA Result 1 directly quotes Daniel Swain of the University of California Agriculture and Natural Resources saying the likelihood of big precipitation in the Southwest interior rises at this time of year, but is being seen to a degree not seen before, which matches the claim. Result 2 quotes his Weather West blog on the same back-to-back extreme rain events, though it does not repeat this exact statement. The quote in Result 1 comes from a news article, not a verified primary transcript.

  6. Confirmada Meteorologist Randy Cerveny of Arizona State University said ocean temperatures are already warmer than they were about 100 years ago.

    IA Multiple results quote meteorologist Randy Cerveny of Arizona State University saying that ocean temperatures are already warmer than they were about 100 years ago, matching the claim's core. Several of these (WMUR, WDBO, Daily Record) appear to repeat the same AP-style report, so they share a single original source, though the Orlando Sentinel and PBS versions also carry the quote.

  7. Confirmada Regions including Peru and Ecuador are seeing record-breaking flooding, according to Daniel Swain.

    IA The Sun-Sentinel/AP article states that regions including Peru and Ecuador are seeing record-breaking flooding, as Swain said, which matches the claim. This attribution comes from a single news report, and the results do not include Swain's original statement. The PMC study also describes devastating flooding in coastal Peru and Ecuador in 2023, which is consistent but does not mention Swain.

No se pudieron verificar

Ninguna fuente independiente las confirmó ni las desmintió. Eso no significa que sean falsas.

  1. Sin verificar The El Niño event is expected to peak in December.

    IA None of the results states when the El Niño event is expected to peak. The December 2023 NOAA update covers strength and the expected end in April–June, and the CPC and OAS results cover persistence into 2027 without naming a peak month. The only December reference, a 73% chance of exceeding the strong threshold for Dec–Feb 2023/24, is indirect and does not establish a December peak.

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